Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 194.150539 237.780074 292.584532 367.916848 471.130214 6.112859e+02 8.228658e+02
2025-01-19 140.167024 187.503215 254.825095 362.006524 537.723173 8.341826e+02 1.425239e+03
2025-01-26 120.645247 172.707088 254.405261 401.642870 685.891501 1.282139e+03 2.918639e+03
2025-02-02 106.450982 160.462352 251.993192 434.673647 841.950555 1.896636e+03 6.046390e+03
2025-02-09 95.207613 149.550101 247.594980 461.020055 1002.901807 2.731477e+03 1.312439e+04
2025-02-16 85.505071 138.825454 240.076352 477.295831 1153.807346 3.799781e+03 3.025233e+04
2025-02-23 77.391265 129.185148 231.914214 488.645250 1303.569240 5.217363e+03 8.075088e+04
2025-03-02 68.909499 117.281135 216.226413 475.366661 1367.353531 6.437123e+03 2.073082e+05
2025-03-09 61.954423 107.219882 202.324374 461.966557 1424.560365 7.883085e+03 7.005981e+05
2025-03-16 55.708044 97.665728 187.683256 441.676065 1442.262754 9.203962e+03 3.230401e+06
2025-03-23 54.385849 97.917961 195.458158 490.652462 1821.069075 1.658346e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 50.960305 93.237296 190.513213 498.130827 2012.953637 2.401793e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 48.399166 90.281327 189.807992 522.199888 2358.518241 4.224935e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 44.623458 84.170730 179.925707 510.224086 2469.025595 5.911701e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 43.946625 84.944446 188.417850 572.485279 3270.426323 1.870075e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 42.821503 84.505555 193.536045 625.430891 4190.700927 8.202043e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 41.401044 83.154780 195.768278 668.207805 5209.818609 7.980215e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 39.667034 80.803349 194.534300 694.850549 6193.527658 4.781814e+09 NaN
2025-05-18 37.900014 78.148535 191.847538 713.523434 7213.501940 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 35.495830 73.611742 182.390416 691.682053 7448.143934 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 33.318342 69.450995 173.518001 669.745180 7647.651588 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 31.140055 65.092111 163.369450 636.730669 7514.130023 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 31.062412 66.205525 171.563589 716.833451 10860.097072 NaN NaN